Long-time skeptic-turned-believer Joe Kernen, and his co-hosts of CNBC’s Squawk Box, engaged in a discussion about bitcoin’s price after reward block halving that is slated for May 2020. Joe asked the show’s guest, Katie Stockton, an analyst and also the Founder and Managing Partner of Fairlead Strategies if she believes bitcoin soaring to $55K after 2020’s halving is plausible.
Despite the recent downswing that has led to bitcoin trading at sub-$10,000, Joe is very optimistic that in the next 10 months, bitcoin will experience a parabolic rise following its reward block halving.
Halving And How Bitcoin Price Has Reacted In Past Halving Events
Halving is a once-every-four-year event where bitcoin supply is reduced by half. As of now, the block reward for bitcoin stands at 12.5 BTC. In the upcoming halving scheduled for May, this will be halved to 6.25 BTC per block. Halving induces scarcity and as such, prices often rise after a halving event.
Historically, reward block halving has always affected the prices of bitcoin. Case in point, the first block halving took place on November 28, 2012. After the halving, the value of bitcoin surged to $1,110 from $10, throughout 2013. However, the price later plummeted to $200 in the following year before it plateaued out.
The second halving took place on July 9, 2016, after which prices rose from $570 to $20K highs in 2017. As is the norm, the price dipped in the following year, 2018. At press time, bitcoin is trading at $9,463.03 and Joe predicts that in less than 10 months, the price will surge to $55K and hopefully this time around, there will be no crash after this meteoric rise.
Joe Cites Popular Stock-to-Flow Model
The stock-to-flow model was publicized by a renowned crypto-analyst on twitter who goes by the name 100trillionUSD. Joe directly references this model as the basis of his price prediction. This scarcity model uses metrics and certain comparisons to other valuable assets to determine the price action of bitcoin on several occasions. For instance, the model alludes that gold has “maintained its monetary role throughout history” due to its limited supply.
According to this model, there’s a direct correlation between scarcity and the price of bitcoin whereby scarcity leads to low supply and subsequently high prices. 100trillionUSD predicts that after 2020’s reward halving, bitcoin’s market value will be $1 trillion which translates to the price of $55K per bitcoin.
Katie And Joe’s Co-hosts Seemed Amazed By Joe’s Prognostication
After Joe asked Katie if she thinks bitcoin at $55k is possible, she appears a bit shocked as she exclaims first before responding. Joe then explains the important technical fundamentals (of supply and demand) that will likely drive the prices to the said figure.
Joe’s co-host Andrew Ross Sorkin and Rebecca Quick, they at some point giggled at Joe’s wildly optimistic prediction. However, when he explains the dynamics behind the prediction, they all seem of the same mind as him.
Ultimately, Joe’s knowledge of how scarcity and supply affect bitcoin price movement is great news for the crypto community. Many people have also applauded Joe for sharing such important information on national television.
The nagging question is, will bitcoin hit $55K after May 2020 halving? The answer: uncertain. We can only wait and see what price path bitcoin will carve out after 2020’s reward halving.